Subseasonal forecast

Valid from  July 14 - August 10 , 2025

(4 weeks)

General comment:

During the week of July 14th, the Canícula (mid-summer drought) will continue, significantly decreasing the amount of precipitation due to a reduction in atmospheric moisture content. These dry conditions will persist throughout July. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal across the entire country.
Pronóstico Estacional

Fig. 1. Weekly precipitation forecast by region for the next 4 weeks.

 

1. Forecast for July 14–20, 2025

Rainy conditions will continue throughout the Caribbean, as a result of an increase in trade winds. Normal conditions are expected in the Southern Pacific and Eastern Northern Zone, while less than normal rainfall is forecasted for the Northern Pacific, Central Pacific, Central Valley, and Western Northern Zone. The Canícula will become more pronounced, particularly in the Northern Pacific where rainfall will be much lower than normal.

  • Probability of extreme event: low (around 10%)

  • Forecast uncertainty: low

2. Forecast for July 21–27, 2025

Rainy conditions will persist in the Caribbean due to continued strong trade winds. Lower than normal rainfall is expected in the Northern Pacific, Central Valley, and Northern Zone. The Central and Southern Pacific regions will experience normal conditions.

  • Probability of extreme event: low (around 10%)

  • Forecast uncertainty: moderate

3. Forecast for July 28–August 3, 2025

Normal conditions are expected across most of the country, with less than normal rainfall in the Northern Pacific and Western Northern Zone.

  • Probability of extreme event: low (around 10%)

  • Forecast uncertainty: moderate

4. Forecast for August 4–10, 2025

Normal conditions are forecasted for most of the country, with less than normal rainfall in the Northern Pacific.

  • Probability of extreme event: low (around 10%)

  • Forecast uncertainty: high

Potential Extreme Event Forecast (July 14–20, 2025)

 

No extreme precipitation events or nearby tropical cyclones are expected in the Costa Rica region during this period.


Fig. 2. Forecast of extreme events for the next 2 weeks (training areas).


 

 

Forecaster: Daniel Poleo
Maps: Nury Sanabria Valverde
Unidad de aplicaciones climáticas
Departamento de Desarrollo/IMN